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英国assignment代写,DCF,DDM和EVA经济模型的比较与分析
发表日期:2013-08-01 09:09:24 | 来源:assignment.cc | 当前的位置:首页 > 代写assignment > 英国代写assignment > 正文
Moving to DDM model, this model use long term interest rate to calculate the firm’s value, because DDM believe that the present value of dividends could be realized by risk free rate, it does not need WACC. Nicholas .H (the vice president at Pareo Inc) pointed that the discount rate for the DDM is the cost of equity or CAPM; whereas the discount rate for DCF is a weighted cost of debt and equity or WACC. Also Aswath Damodaran proved this viewpoint in his book.49 Similar to DCF, DDM was mentioned by John Burr Williams's in his 'The Theory of Investment Value' book in 1938, and differentiated with DCF, DDM only focus on the dividends paid, it relies on one fact, that is, any stock is ultimately worth no more than what it will provide investors in current and future dividends, says that the value of a stock is worth all of the future cash flows expected to be generated by the firm, discounted by an appropriate risk-adjusted rate.50 According to the DDM, it assumes that dividends are the cash flows that are returned to the shareholder.
 
Like DCF, DDM model was set up by the plenty of assumptions, the most important assumption is DDM believe the dividends are steady, or grow at a constant rate indefinitely, and based on the dividends growth rate, DDM derived two sub-model, zero growth
And constant growth
 
 
Or call Gordon Dividend Growth Model.
 
As the traditional evaluation method, DDM exist a fatal shortcoming. Merely concentrate on the dividends paid, if a firm does not pay the dividend, DDM model will consider this firm is non-value, because the numerator is zero, but actually, a few of firms will use remain profits to re-invest some projects which have positive NPV, although they did not pay the dividends. Also if one firm has high dividends growth rate, it means g > r, obviously, the denominator is negative, the equation is not exist.
After analyzing DCF and DDM method, researchers realized that these two models cannot assess the firm’s value well. Due to the limitation of DDM, and the small changes lead to unreliable consequence in DCF, investors are eager to find an ideal method to forecast the value of firms. Nowadays, EVA is a popular calculation method in the world and it is a modified version of DCF model.
 
Economic value added (EVA) is a performance measure developed by Joel Stern, and is a registered trademark of Stern Stewart & Co in 1982,53 that attempts to measure the true economic profit produced by a company. It is base on three simple ideas: cash is king, (because Cash flows are more reliable than accruals), some period expenses are - in economic reality - actually long-term investments, and equity capital is expensive (or can say The Company does not create value until a threshold level of return is generated for shareholders.)
In his book, David and Stephen pointed that EVA absorbs the advantage of DCF, using cash flow to evaluate the performance of firm, and furthermore, EVA updates the meaning of profits. In EVA model, economic profits reflect the pure residual income (adjustment to GAAP); it means that profits will be accounted when firms deduct all the capital cost which includes equity capital. Because equity capital is a cost, it could be considered as an opportunity cost. Compare two valuation methods below,
Traditional Valuation
 
 
Equity Market Capitalization ‚Üí Discounted [Free Cash Flows] = Intrinsic Value of Firm Equity
 
Economic Profit Valuation
 
Equity Market Capitalization ‚Üí Invested Capital + Discounted [Economic Profit] = Invested Capital + Market Value Added (MVA)
 
From these equations, they disclose the most notable difference between traditional and EVA method is EVA model consider not only equity but also capital cost which invested in firm.
Meanwhile, like DCF, EVA model use WACC as the discount rate, as an operational metric, it helps managers clarify how they create value. Generally, they do it either by investing additional capital that produces returns above WACC, by reducing capital employed in a business, by improving returns by growing revenues or reducing expenses or by reducing the cost of capital, cited by David Harper whom is contributing Editor in Investopedia.
 
Summary
 
Compared DCF, DDM and EVA model, each method based on different aspects build up different methodology. Investors could combine all of them to analyze the performance and forecast the value of firms. Actually, there does not have a perfect model which can consider everything and explain everything, however, as long as researcher utilize each model’s advantage, the result which researcher calculated will more precise than only use single model.
 
移动到DDM模型,这种模型使用的长期利率来计算公司的价值,因为DDM认为股利的现值,可以实现无风险利率,它并不需要加权平均资本成本。尼古拉斯H(Pareo的公司副总裁)指出的DDM折现率是股本或资本资产定价模型的成本,而DCF折现率是一个加权债务和股权成本或加权平均资本成本。另外阿斯瓦斯达莫达兰证明了这个观点在他的book.49的类似于DCF,DDM提到约翰·伯尔·威廉姆斯在他的“理论投资价值在1938年的书,分化与DCF,DDM只集中支付的股息,它依赖一个事实,那就是,任何股票最终价值没有比它在当前和未来的股息将为投资者提供更多的,说一个股票的价值是值得的预计未来现金流量所产生的贴现公司,一个合适的风险调整rate.50根据DDM,它假定股息是返回给股东的现金流量。
 
像DCF,DDM模型成立了由大量的假设,最重要的假设是DDM相信是稳定的股息,或无限期地以恒定的速率成长,和股息增长率的基础上,DDM得出两个子模型,零发展
而不断增长
 
 
或致电戈登股利增长模型。
 
由于传统的评价方法,DDM存在一个致命的缺点。只是集中支付的股息,如果一个公司不支付股息,DDM模型会考虑这家公司非价值,因为分子是零,但实际上,少数企业将保持利润再投资一些项目净现值为正的,虽然他们没有支付股息。此外,如果一个公司有高股息的增长速度,这意味着,克> R中,很明显,分母是否定的,则方程是不存在的。
DCF和DDM方法分析后,研究人员意识到,这两款车型无法评估公司的价值。由于DDM的限制,小的变化导致不可靠的结果在DCF,投资者急于找到一个理想的方法来预测企业的价值。如今,EVA是一种流行的计算方法,在世界上,它是一个DCF模型修改后的版本。
 
经济增加值(EVA)是一个业绩衡量标准,由乔尔·斯特恩开发,是思腾思特公司的注册商标1982,53试图测量真实的公司所产生的经济利润。它是基于三个简单的想法:现金为王,现金流量(因为更可靠的比应计费用),部分期间费用 - 在经济现实 - 实际上是长期投资,股权资本是昂贵的(或可以说,本公司不直到某一阈值产生的收益水平,为股东创造价值。)
在他的书中,大卫和斯蒂芬指出,EVA吸收利用DCF,用现金流来评估坚定的表现,此外,EVA更新的意思利润,。 EVA模型,经济利润反映了纯粹的剩余收益(公认会计准则调整);这意味着利润将占到公司扣除全部资本成本,包括权益资本。由于权益资本是有成本的,它可以被视为一种机会成本。比较下面两种估值方法,
传统估值
 
 
股票市值,UI贴现现金流量=公司股票的内在价值
 
经济利润估值
 
股票市值,UI投入资本+贴现[经济利润=投资资本+市场增加值(MVA)
 
从这些方程中,他们披露的EVA模型不仅考虑股票,但也坚定投资的资金成本,是传统和EVA的方法最显着的区别。
同时,如DCF,EVA模型使用加权平均资本成本作为折现率,作为经营指标,它可以帮助经理人澄清他们是如何创造价值。一般来说,他们这样做,无论是由投资产生的额外资本回报高于加权平均资本成本,通过降低资本受聘于一家企业,通过增加收入或减少开支或提高收益,降低资本成本,由大卫·哈珀被特约编辑引用,风险。
 
总结
 
相比DCF,DDM和EVA模型,每种方法都基于不同方面建立了不同的方法。投资者可以结合他们的表现进行分析,并预测企业的价值。其实,有没有一个完美的模型,可以考虑一切并解释一切,但是,只要研究员利用每个模型的优势,结果,研究人员计算出更精确比只使用单一的模式。